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CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydroclimate Projection over the Conterminous US

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Dataset Overview

[March 6, 2024] Note: this dataset has been expanded. Please see for further info.

This dataset presents a suite of high-resolution downscaled hydro-climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on a six-member General Climate Model (GCM) ensemble from the state-of-the-art Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using statistical (i.e., DBCCA) and dynamical (i.e., RegCM) downscaling approaches based on two meteorological reference observations (Daymet and Livneh). The downscaled climate models are driven through two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS) to simulate projected future hydrologic responses. Each ensemble member covers the 1980–2019 baseline and 2020–2059 near-term future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. This dataset is derived to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details on this dataset, refer to Kao et al. (2022) and Rastogi et al. (2022).

Gridded Data: This dataset provides major variables such as maximum temperature (tmax), minimum temperature (tmin), total precipitation (prcp), average wind speed (wind), and total runoff (runoff) at 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution at three timescales (daily, monthly, and annual) across the CONUS. The data is available in .nc format and can be downloaded from the links within the three .csv files associated with this dataset. The  9505V3_Gridded_DailyData_Download_Links (csv) provides the link to the daily data,  9505V3_Gridded_MonthlyData_Download_Links (csv) provides the link to the monthly data, and 9505V3_Gridded_AnnualData_Download_Links (csv) provides the link the the annual data. The data dictionary for all these *.csv files is provided through the 9505V3_Gridded_Data_Field_Descriptions (csv) file. 

Users may also use the Climate-Hydro Analytics Platform (CHAP) tool to subset to any Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) basins  and retrieve the data in .tiff format. Additional variables and scenarios may be available upon request.

Spatially Averaged Data: Additionally, all variables from the Gridded Data have been spatially aggregated across four levels of HUC basins (HUC2, HUC4, HUC6, and HUC8), states, and counties. The data is available in both .nc and .xlsx formats for downloads. In the .nc files, the spatially averaged data are provided for each model, and in the .xlsx files, the spatially averaged data are provided for spatial units (i.e., state, county,  HUC).The 9505V3_SpatialAverage_Download_Links_nc (csv) provides the download links to all the .nc files, the 9505V3_SpatialAverage_HUC_Download_Links_xls (csv) provides the download links to all the .xlsx files for various HUC units and.the 9505V3_SpatialAverage_State_Download_Links_xls (csv) provides the download links to all the .xlsx files for the states/counties.

Furthermore, the gridded data at three timescales (daily, monthly, and annual), as well as the spatially aggregated data across four levels of HUC basins (HUC2, HUC4, HUC6, and HUC8), states, and counties are also available as .xlsx workbooks  9505V3_GriddedData_Download_Links (xlsx), 9505V3_SpatialAverage_Download_Links_nc (xlsx), and 9505V3_SpatialAverage_Download_Links_xls (xlsx).

Spatially Averaged Data


Kao, S.-C., M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, S. Gangrade, R. Uría Martínez, A. Fernandez, G. Konapala, N. Voisin, T. Zhou, W. Xu, H. Gao, B. Zhao, and G. Zhao (2022), The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower, ORNL/TM-2021/2278, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN. DOI:

Rastogi, D., Kao, S. C., & Ashfaq, M. (2022). How may the choice of downscaling techniques and meteorological reference observations affect future hydroclimate projections?. Earth's Future10(8), e2022EF002734. DOI:

Acronyms associated with this dataset: 

CMIP6: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6
CONUS: conterminous United States
DBCCA: Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues
RegCM: Regional Climate Model
VIC: Variable Infiltration Capacity
PRMS: Precipitation Runoff Modeling System
SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway
GCM: Global Climate Model
PMA: Power Marketing Administration
USACE: US Army Corps of Engineers
Reclamation: Bureau of Reclamation
HUC: Hydrologic Unit Code