CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydropower Projection over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

Overview

This dataset presents a suite of hydropower projections for the conterminous United States (CONUS), derived from multiple downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) approaches, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). The resulting downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data are then used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), enabling simulations of projected future hydrologic responses across the CONUS. Simulated total runoff is subsequently employed to drive two hydropower models (WMP, now implemented as mosartwmpy-power, and WRES) to evaluate how climate change may affect future hydropower production for both federal and non-federal hydropower fleets. This dataset was developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, see Broman et al. (2024), Thurber et al. (2024), Kao et al. (2022), and Zhou et al. (2023).

Figure 2: Variance of projected annual and seasonal hydropower generation by model factors in PMA study areas (Kao et al., 2022).

Data Coverage:

There are two groups of modeling outputs, developed to address slightly different research questions.

Group 1: This group includes six selected CMIP6 GCMs—ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-ESM2-1, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and NorESM2-MM—covering both the 1980–2019 baseline and the 2020–2059 near-future period under the high-end emission scenario (SSP585).

Group 2: This group extends the analysis by using DBCCA downscaling with Daymet as the reference dataset. Projections for the six GCMs are carried forward to the 2060–2099 far-future period and expanded to include three additional emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP245, and SSP126). An additional CMIP6 GCM, EC-Earth3, is also incorporated.

Spatial and Temporal Aggregation: The plant-scale daily hydropower projections were aggregated to a monthly time step, consistent with the training scale of the hydropower models. Projections were further aggregated to multiple spatial scales to align with the needs of different stakeholder groups, including hydrologic subbasins (HUC04) for water managers, Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) for federal hydropower operators, and Balancing Authorities (BAs) for operational planners.

· Federal Hydropower Projections (PMA): This subset provides monthly federal hydropower projections for 18 areas corresponding to the four DOE Power Marketing Administrations. Further details can be found in Kao et al. (2022) and Zhou et al. (2023).

· CONUS Hydropower Projections (HUC04 and BA): This subset provides monthly hydropower projections for all hydropower plants in the CONUS, including both federal and non-federal facilities. The projections are aggregated by U.S. Hydrologic Subbasins (HUC04) and by Balancing Authorities (BAs). Further details can be found in Broman et al. (2024).

Related Datasets:

All metadata and files for this overall dataset can be found at the following links with more details on aggregation and evaluation, also at:

Broman, D., Kao, S.-C., Voisin, N., Zhou, T., Ghimire, G., & Fernandez, A. (2024). CONUS-wide Balancing Authority Scale Hydropower Projections derived from 9505 Third Assessment (1.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10525253

Broman, D., Kao, S.-C., Voisin, N., Zhou, T., Ghimire, G. R., & Fernandez, A. (2024). CONUS-wide HUC4 Watershed Scale Hydropower Projections derived from 9505 Third Assessment (1.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10535565

Zhou, T., Kao, S.-C., Xu, W., Gangrade, S., & Voisin, N. (2022). Multi-model Hydropower Projections for the United States Federal Power Marketing Areas under CMIP5 Climate Change Conditions [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6506089

Figure 3: Scale of reported monthly hydropower projections. Source: Broman et al. (2024).

References:

Broman, D., N. Voisin, S.-C. Kao, A. Fernandez, and G. R. Ghimire (2024), Multi-Scale Impacts of Climate Change on Hydropower for Long-Term Water-Energy Planning in the

Contiguous United States, Environ. Res. Lett., 19(9), 094057, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ceb.

Kao, S.-C., M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, S. Gangrade, R. Uría Martínez, A. Fernandez, G. Konapala, N. Voisin, T. Zhou, W. Xu, H. Gao, B. Zhao, and G. Zhao (2022), The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower, ORNL/TM-2021/2278, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2172/1887712

Thurber TB, Broman D, Zhou T, Voisin N. wmpy-power: A Python package for process-based regional hydropower simulation. Journal of Open Source Software. 2024;9(103):7225. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07225

Zhou T, Kao S-C, Xu W, Gangrade S, Voisin N. Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant. Environmental Research Letters. 2023;18(3):034009. https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb58d

Acronyms associated with this dataset:

CMIP6: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6

CONUS: conterminous United States

DBCCA: Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues

GCM: Global Climate Model

HUC: Hydrologic Unit Code

MOSART-WM: MOdel for Scale Adaptive River Routing – Water Management

mosartwmpy: python version of the MOSART-WM model

PMA: Power Marketing Administration

PRMS: Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

Reclamation: Bureau of Reclamation

RegCM: Regional Climate Model

SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway

SWA: SECURE Water Act

USACE: US Army Corps of Engineers

VIC: Variable Infiltration Capacity

WMP: Water Management-Power

WRES: Watershed Runoff-Energy Storage